The Triangle of Impossibility and China

Patrick Artus Chef économiste, Natixis, groupe BPCE ; professeur associé, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. Contact : patrick.artus@natixis.com.


It seems that China is trying to reach simultaneously the three objectives of Mundell’s triangle of impossibility: free-moving capital, fixed exchange rate and autonomy in monetary policy. But, even if international capital flows are controlled, they remain nonetheless very important. In order to reach the three objectives, China has to get round the triangle by accumulating huge foreign exchange reserves and by controlling credit with quantitative measures that lead to distortions between the market interest rates and the regulated interest rates.


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