The Importance of Exchange Rates Changes in Exiting the Crisis

Anton Brender Économiste, Candriam ; professeur associé honoraire, université Paris-Dauphine (Paris IX).Contact : anton.brender@candriam.com.
Florence Pisani Économiste, Candriam ; enseignante, université Paris-Dauphine (Paris IX).Contact : florence.pisani@candriam.com.


The nature of the present exchange rate regimes explains the global imbalances lying at the heart of the financial crisis. Most of the countries that have accumulated foreign exchange reserves since 1990 have a fixed exchange rate system. The currency of the main debtor – the US – is floating and the European countries bearing a deficit have a fixed exchange rate system with their main commercial partners along with a floating one with the others. Such conditions had to lead to a financial crisis and pave the way for a currency war. Nevertheless, a better exit of the crisis is possible if the present rebalancing of the international trade and the continuation of the emerging countries growth lead to an appreciation of their real exchange rates.


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