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Emerging Countries and OECD Countries: Will the Economic Policies Put in Place Be Cooperative or Not?

Patrick Artus * Conseiller économique, Natixis. Contact : patrick.artus@natixis.com.


In the emerging countries, growth is strong and inflation accelerates with fast-growing labour costs; the aim of economic policies is therefore the slowdown inflation with restrictive monetary policies. In the OECD countries, growth is disappointing and inflation only results from higher import prices; fiscal policy cannot remain expansionary, hence the persistence of monetary stimulus. The strong implied appreciation of the currencies of emerging countries is not a favourable development for OECD countries, which is not the common view: it is leading to higher import prices and not to a stimulation of production, which is little substitutable to the one in emerging countries; however, it benefits emerging countries because of its effect on inflation.


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