Which Monetary Regime for Emerging Economies after the Normalization?

André Cartapanis Sciences Po Aix ; GREDEG, UMR 7321, CNRS et université de Nice Sophia Antipolis ; CHERPA, EA 4261, Sciences Po Aix. Contact : andre.cartapanis@sciencespo-aix.fr.
Céline Gimet Université de Franche-Comté, CRESE, EA 3180, Besançon ; CHERPA, EA 4261, Sciences Po Aix ; GATE-LSE-CNRS, UMR 5824, CNRS, Lyon. Contact : celine.gimet@univ-fcomte.fr


For emerging economies, the expected return to conventional monetary policies in the US, which will result in a rise in US interest rates and in a decrease in global liquidity, raises the question of the choice of the monetary regime for those countries that permits to ensure stable growth without financial instability in the post-crisis period. Monetary regime stands for the combination of monetary policy rules, of financial stability objectives and of the choice of exchange rate regime. After studying the monetary regime of the emerging countries in a context of unconventional monetary policies since the crisis, we focus on international spillovers caused by US monetary policy, before analyzing the different dilemmas or trilemmas between which central bankers from emerging countries will arbitrate to implement their monetary regime after the normalization.


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