With much stronger international linkages between long-term interest rates in different currencies, ultra-low interest rates have become a global phenomenon. The real equilibrium policy rates (the natural rate) has fallen in many countries. Term premia in bond markets are low or even negative in many currencies. The fundamental causes of these developments, which suggest that the “new normal” for interest rates is lower than in the past, are still under debate. Time will tell.
Cet article reflète le point de vue des auteurs et non celui de la BRI. Les auteurs tiennent à remercier Sonja Fritz pour son aide dans la préparation de cet article. Ils expriment également leur reconnaissance à Andrew Filardo, Blaise Gadanecz, Boris Hofmann, Marco Lombardi et Feng Zhu pour leurs précieuses observations.
