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A (VERY SHORT) HISTORY OF PANDEMIC MODELS

Pierre-Charles Pradier * Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. Contact : Pierre-Charles.Pradier@univ-paris1.fr.


Epidemiology evolved into an empirical science with two quantum leaps: in 1760, Daniel Bernoulli modelled the diffusion of a disease in a population using a differential equation then in the inter-war period a “probabilistic” model of causality emerged. Although they have never been fully integrated into medical school training in France, the prerequisites of these approaches are now taught in the final year of high school.


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